Proposal: Good Judgement and Sound Decision Making (Forecasting, Predictions, Valuation and Estimates)

The description of this proposal reads like it is about the process of making good judgements, and people are expected to ask questions about decision making processes. However the actual questions all read like general purpose questions, not connected by any area of expertise, implying that answerers use good judgement in answering the questions.

The likely problems with this are:

  1. The questions are likely to duplicate other sites. All Stack Exchange answers are expected to use good judgement, good decision making, and good evidence. Therefore (for example) a history question on this site is not any different from a question on the history site
  2. There is no expert community for this site. A question on history requires a history expert. A question on economics requires an economics expert. A question on cybersecurity requires a cybersecurity expert. There is no common thread to the questions.
  3. Forecasts by their very nature tend to be the kind of thing that doesn't have a definitive answer. SE questions are expected to at least potentially have a definitive answer.
  4. Stack Exchange has never been in favour of catch-all proposals, and this reads rather like one.

If I have misstated the situation, please explain in an answer.

This proposal seems almost definitionally "based on a type of question". General forecast/prediction/estimations cab almost certainly be dealt with, by Stats, Economics, Personal Finance & Money, Earth Science... – Nij Jan 11 at 21:49
The question here are the type that are regularly answered by IC Analysts and research developed by projects like Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity but done at a recreational as the motivator. – Suminda Sirinath S. Dharmasena Jan 12 at 12:31

This is based on Superforecasting based on the The Good Judgment Project. Some of these techniques used by Intelligence Community (IC) [e.g. Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity] and Defence Agencies on a daily basis. In this case want to see there would be like minded people who want to do this recreation than IC / Defence related activity.


When the proposal was first posted the example questions were about, getting answers that forecasters might pursue. As you correctly propose in your question, you could ask about anything that might happen in the future. The example questions have now changed to be about how to get those answers.

Old = What will the value for xyz be?

New = How do I determine the value of xyz?

Currently the focus on how to forecast, which I believe brings it in scope for SE.

I think it does not always have to be about the future. E.g. something has happened but nobody knows for sure. What is the best way or most systematic to investigate what happened. Or something is currently going on with conflicting, imprecise and incomplete information. What is the best way to figure this out. So how do you come to a decisive conclusion and / or estimate would be the goal of the answer. – Suminda Sirinath S. Dharmasena Jan 13 at 3:58
Simply put it is the art and science of making judgments and conclusion about the past, present and future. If it deals with the future it will be a forecast. In the present it can be an estimate. – Suminda Sirinath S. Dharmasena Jan 13 at 4:10

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